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Gold on the spot


I think there are enough reasons, both fundamental and technical, for the price of gold to continue going down in the long term. The weekly and daily charts are presented below:

Gold, Weekly chart

GOLD_21_52 16_08

Gold, Daily chart

GOLD_21_51 16_08

1) The strength of the US dollar. It is speculated that the Fed will increase interest rates later this year, and even taking into account the recent yuan devaluation, many still speculate that there are reasons enough for doing it in September already. The pound (GBP) has also been gaining strength for the same reason.

2) China recently increased its gold reserves, but did so in smaller amounts than expected, which is what counts.

3) The improvement of the situation in Greece and the nuclear deal with Iran could also contribute to this momentum.

On the 20th of July (circled on the daily chart) there was this incredible fall around 1140 early morning – news said it were hedge funds that ordered massive short sales of gold, and many stops were triggered below this value (seeing the intraday chart the majority of the decline lasted five minutes).

4) In technical terms, the price has a freeway to go at least up to 1040, but most point now to the psychological level of 1000, initially too. The price action seems to say this.

In any case, and most importantly, any price above 1170, the minimum of a range which lasted 2 years, is reason enough for me to stay out.


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